tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4733870058840414356.post5480387728686952242..comments2024-01-23T10:29:57.817-08:00Comments on Jason Watches Movies: Jason comments on the Presidential campaignpuppymeathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17861361925649066123noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4733870058840414356.post-64681872910398263282008-09-05T23:55:00.000-07:002008-09-05T23:55:00.000-07:00I also like realclearpolitics.com. Much more bala...I also like realclearpolitics.com. Much more balanced, as it mostly links to stories, analysis, and opinion from both sides. But they keep an excellent aggregate average of all national polls. So while CBS trumpets their outlier showing McCain went from 8 points down to even in one day, RCP shows the average as Obama dropping from 6 points up to 3 points up. It takes a lot of the randomness and outliers out of the polls. They also keep an electoral map projection, both with and without the "toss-up" states. It shows Obama narrowly ahead at the moment.<BR/><BR/>electoral-vote.com is also interesting, and last I look showed Obama ahead by nearly the same amount as fivethirtyeight.com. I can't tell if they have a bias one way or another, but I don't think it could change their methodology. Their map only averages polls if there's more than one in the past week. So it can vary more rapidly. It's hard to know if you should count on the most recent poll to be accurate or if you should average in polls that might be out of date. Incidentally, during the primaries this site consistently showed Clinton would do better against McCain than Obama would, and it became a common source for the Clintonites to make their "electability" argument.<BR/><BR/>I think it's possible that the media focuses on the national polls because it makes it more interesting. But also there's just been a lot more national polling than state-by-state polling. So they report on the story that's out there.puppymeathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17861361925649066123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4733870058840414356.post-30187126107842108802008-09-05T23:29:00.000-07:002008-09-05T23:29:00.000-07:00Yes, fivethirtyeight has become my polling site of...Yes, fivethirtyeight has become my polling site of choice. I find that on the MSNBC and CNN news shows they mostly talk about only the national polls...like wow, man. It's a dead heat. Well, maybe so for the total vote, but as we all learned with W, that don't mean squat. What will really be fascinating is to see how close their predictive models correspond to the actual votes. The bloggers at 538 are leaning towards Obama and they state that...and go on to say that it doesn't change their methodology. Oh, and one one of the shows last night, someone actually DID show an electoral map and it did reflect pretty much what 538 was saying. Only difference is that they only listed the "sure thing" states in each candidate's column. At least one person is thinking. And I wonder if they do national polls on purpose so as to generate a feeling of a horse race when there actually may not be one. We do live in interesting times.Dadmaniachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07458986201062260349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4733870058840414356.post-1564222810319531002008-09-05T22:32:00.000-07:002008-09-05T22:32:00.000-07:00Hey, dadmaniac. I had written a follow-up to this...Hey, dadmaniac. I had written a follow-up to this post, where I reacted to the Palin nomination, but I couldn't post it from work (the network there sucks). It's up now. I didn't get into her partisan views as much as just commenting on how crazy Alaskan politics is (I kind of miss it, as entertainment). I have my political opinions, and I think they're pretty close to yours, but I try to leave them out of my blog.<BR/><BR/>And I love fivethirtyeight.com. If you read enough of the blog, it's pretty clear that the authors are at least liberal leaning. But the poll analysis seem to be pretty much down the middle. They had an interesting post today about trying to extract "daily" results from 3-day tracking polls, that suggest the bump McCain/Palin is getting has more to do with a great Obama day dropping out of the 3-day tracking than a good McCain day entering into them.puppymeathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17861361925649066123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4733870058840414356.post-41968928543097564942008-09-05T20:28:00.000-07:002008-09-05T20:28:00.000-07:00Lies, lies and more lies. I've found that I am ac...Lies, lies and more lies. I've found that I am actually getting testy and on edge during this political season. I simply can't take any more of the 'Lying liars and the lies they lie.' As for my illustrious governor Sarah Barracuda, this is all I have to say:<BR/><BR/>She's a fundamentalist, right-wing, conservative, God quoting, small time politician with good looks. So of course, the Reps are going ga-ga over her. I didn't vote for her up here in Alaska and I certainly won't vote for her in November. True, she delivered a good speech...written by a man, to be delivered by a man, but instead delivered by a woman. It smacks of Karl Rove. If you look through the political blogs, you will see that she has energized the extreme right wing of the Rep Party, but that she didn't do much for Independents and undecideds. In fact, although she gets "credit" for having Trigg, her Down Syndrome baby, in Alaska she severely cut the budget for special needs programs for kids. She was "for" the Bridge to Nowhere before she was "against" it. She tried to use her influence to get her ex-brother in law fired, and as Mayor of Wasilla, tried to get books banned at the local library. She may appeal to the Rep base, but believe me, she ain't no friend of the middle class, and certainly no friend to women...especially the ones who like Hillary Clinton. Oh, and I almost forgot, she wants creationism taught in school. Yeah...my kind of woman...NOT.<BR/><BR/>For an interesting look at polling by state instead of nationally, check out http://www.fivethirtyeight.comDadmaniachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07458986201062260349noreply@blogger.com